CORN Newsletter: 2004-33, September 27, 2004

Crop Recommendation and Observation Network by the Agronomic Crops Team


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C.O.R.N Newsletter 2004-33
September 27, 2004 - October 4, 2004

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Price Outlook for Fertilizers
by Robert Mullen


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Ammonia production costs will continue to be high as natural gas prices approach $6.00/MMBtu and beyond at the wellhead. Forecasts predict that domestic natural gas prices will remain high over the next few years. This is due to the fact that natural gas is a more attractive alternative to oil and coal for energy production. Unfortunately, this means that high nitrogen prices will be with us for at least a couple of years (and may be as many as four – when we get a large infussion of natural gas imports).

Higher ammonia costs also translate into higher costs of phosphorus fertilizers that contain nitrogen (specifically – DAP, MAP, and APP). As China and Brazil continue to import large quantities of potash, the cost of potassium will likely rise this coming year (in fact, it is already on the rise).

So what does this mean for this coming year? Producers that have historically maintained adequate soil P and K levels may want to consider holding off on application this coming spring or this fall. Soil test levels well above the critical value do not respond to additional inputs, so skipping a maintenance application for next year’s crop is an option that will not be detrimental. If fields are known to have different soil test levels of P and K, invest in areas that are below the critical level and hold off application on areas with adequate levels. Nitrogen will be required, so manage N as efficiently as possible. If applying N this fall as anhydrous because of the potential high prices next spring, recognize the risk and apply a nitrification inhibitor and make sure soil temps are well below 50 F prior to application. Sidedressing is an attractive alternative, primarily because of the potential for loss early next spring depending upon environmental conditions. Remember fall N prices are lower but the potential for N loss is greater, so the cost benefit of fall application may be offset by the yield loss due to a lack of N next summer.

Readers can subscribe electronically to this newsletter by signing up at http://agcrops.osu.edu/services/email.html. E-mail labarge.1@osu.edu if you have problems subscribing or no longer wish to receive this newsletter.

C.O.R.N. is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio Crop Producers and Industry. C.O.R.N. is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, State Specialists at The Ohio State University and Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center. C.O.R.N. Questions are directed to State Specialists, Extension Associates, and Agents associated with Ohio State University Extension and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center at The Ohio State University.

Information presented above and where trade names are used, they are supplied with the understanding that no discrimination is intended and no endorsement by Ohio State University Extension is implied. Although every attempt is made to produce information that is complete, timely, and accurate, the pesticide user bears responsibility of consulting the pesticide label and adhering to those directions.

All educational programs conducted by Ohio State University Extension are available to clientele on a nondiscriminatory basis without regard to race, color, creed, religion, sexual orientation, national origin, gender, age, disability or Vietnam-era veteran status.

Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Keith L. Smith, Director, Ohio State University Extension.

TDD # 1 (800) 589-8292 (Ohio only) or (614) 292-1868


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